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The UFC has a very intriguing heavyweight bout headline UFC Vegas 20 on Saturday, February 27 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.

Alexander Hernandez (12-3) vs. Thiago Moises (14-4)
Weight class: Lightweight

I love this matchup for Alexander Hernandez.

Hernandez is someone many fans love or hate due to his trash-talking self. He was outmatched against Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober, but Thiago Moises is far from their level.

In Moises' last fight, he was picked apart by Michael Johnson in the first round. Although he ended up heel-hooking him just seconds into the second round, that move won't work on Hernandez. The Texan grew up grappling, and I actually think their grappling is a wash, which, in turn, will make this a standup fight.

On the feet, there is no question Alexander Hernandez is the better striker, and I fully expect him to pick apart the Brazilian as Johnson did. I think -200 is a very fair price to play, and he is also -188 on FanDuel. To me, Hernandez should be at least -270, as I think he wins this fight 75 percent of the time.

The Play: Alexander Hernandez (-200)

Alex Caceres (17-12) vs. Kevin Croom (21-12)
Weight class: Featherweight

Alex Caceres should not be a -227 favorite over Kevin Croom, plain and simple.

Although Caceres is on a three-fight winning streak, he beat short-notice replacement Austin Springer, Chase Hooper and Steven Peterson, the last of which is a fight a ton of people thought he lost.

The problem with Caceres in his career has been grapplers who can also strike. He had success against Hooper because the prospect couldn't strike with him, nor were his takedowns good enough to get the fight to the mat. Kevin Croom, meanwhile, is a different story. In his UFC debut, he submitted Roosevelt Roberts, and in his career has proven to be a solid grappler who also cracks hard.

There is a chance Caceres just keeps this fight on the outside and jabs his way to a win. However, I trust James Krause to come up with the right game plan for Croom to land the big shots and eventually submit Caceres. This is closer to a pick'em fight, so to get +175 on Croom is why I'm taking this shot.

The Play: Kevin Croom (+175)

Sabina Mazo (9-1) vs. Alexis Davis (19-10)
Weight class: Women's Bantamweight

Sabina Mazo is making the move up to bantamweight while Alexis Davis is moving back up to her old weight class.

There is no question who the UFC wants to win this fight. Mazo is one of the top women's prospects, while Davis is on a three-fight losing streak, and at 36 years old, is on the last leg of her career.

In the fight, I expect Mazo to be able to keep this standing and just pick apart Davis for three rounds. I don't think the 23-year-old will be able to get a stoppage, as six of her 10 fights have gone the distance. For Davis, she has not been finished since Sara McMann submitted her in 2016.

To me, Mazo is the better fighter, and in the standup fight I expect this to be, she will use her reach to land the better shots and win a decision.

The Play: Sabina Mazo wins by decison (+100)

Dustin Jacoby (13-5) vs. Maxim Grishin (31-8-2) &
Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) vs. Nikita Krylov (27-7)
Weight class: Light Heavyweight

I really like Magomed Ankalaev against Nikita Krylov, but at -345, it is too steep of a price to pay, which is why I'm adding in Dustin Jacoby.

In the first fight of the night, Jacoby – who used to be a professional kickboxer – is on his second stint in the UFC but is a completely different fighter. First off, under Marc Montoya, he is fighting much smarter and has proven he can go five hard rounds. His takedown defense has also gotten better, which is why I like him in this fight. Grishin is a slower fighter and doesn't have the power to KO Jacoby. I expect Jacoby to pick Grishin apart for however long the fight lasts.

If Jacoby wins, it also sets up an option for you to hedge with Nikita Krylov, who is a +260 underdog. However, Ankalaev is the better fighter everywhere, but I do expect the fight to remain standing and for the Russian to land the power shots. Although Krylov hasn't been knocked out since 2013, Ankalaev has a different type of power. If he can't get the finish, I do think he'll do enough to win the first two rounds and get the decision.

The Play: Jacoby & Ankalaev parlay (-103)

This article is part of our MMA Best Bets series.

The UFC has a very intriguing heavyweight bout headline UFC Vegas 19 on Saturday, February 20 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.

Drako Rodriguez (7-1) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (7-2)
Weight class: Bantamweight

I don't understand the odds for this fight, which makes it one of my favorite plays.

When fights get announced I line the fight myself, and I actually lined Drako Rodriguez around -250 to -275, which means I like him to win this fight roughly seven out of 10 times. Although William Hill has this line at -200, other books are offering it at -175, -180 range, so shop around if you can.

Zahabi is someone who had a lot of hype entering his UFC debut due to his last name. He is the brother of the famed MMA coach, Firas Zahabi. However, he has let to live up to the hype in the UFC as he is 1-2 and last time out, suffered a very disappointing loss to Vince Morales in a fight he should've won. The Canadian also fought low-level competition to get to the UFC.

On the regional scene, Zahabi was scoring first-round KO's and when he gets out of the first round, he slows down. Rodriguez, meanwhile, went five rounds on the regional scenes as he fought for the KOTC bantamweight title. I expect him to just outwork Zahabi on the feet and mix in his grappling to either get a late stoppage win or a clear-cut decision. To me, the Canadian has one path to victory and that is first-round KO, but Rodriguez has shown off a solid chin.

The play: Drako Rodriguez (-200)

Eddie Wineland (24-14-1) vs. John Castanada (17-5)
Weight class: Bantamweight

Eddie Wineland has turned back the clock before and I expect him to do the same here.

Although Wineland is coming off a brutal first-round KO loss to Sean O'Malley, John Castanada is far from what O'Malley is. To me, Castenada and Grigorii Popov are very similar, and in that fight, Wineland was able to pick apart the young, up-and-coming fighter and eventually scored a second-round TKO win.

Castaneda entered the UFC going 1-2 in his last three although one of those losses he should've gotten the judges' decision. In his debut, he was outworked by Nathaniel Wood which is not a bad loss at all. Yet, his entire game plan is to out-grapple his opponents and try to submit them. Wineland, meanwhile, has not been submitted since 2009.

Ultimately, I like Wineland to land the harder shots and win the striking battles to win a decision. This is a close fight, but to get plus-money on Wineland, I have to take the shot.

The play: Eddie Wineland (+100)

Julian Erosa (24-8) vs. Nate Landwehr (14-3)
Weight class: Featherweight

Note: William Hill did not have a line available for this prop at the time of publication, so the number below was taken from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Julian Erosa and Nate Landwehr is currently a pick'em fight and I lean Landwehr in the fight, however, there is a prop that jumps out to me. Although you could do the under 2.5 rounds at -115, I like Landwehr by KO/TKO at +380.

Why I like Landwehr by KO/TKO is simple. Although the former M-1 Challenge champion hasn't gotten a finish in the UFC, his win was against Darren Elkins who might be one of the most durable featherweights on the roster. Erosa, on the other hand, is far from that.

Out of his eight losses, four have come by KO/TKO while he was also knocked out in a minute by Artem Lobov on The Ultimate Fighter which doesn't count to his record. Landwehr, meanwhile, has eight of his 14 wins by KO/TKO. I don't trust the chin of Erosa and at 3-1 odds on some sportsbooks, it is a shot worth taking.

The play: Nate Landwehr by KO/TKO (+380)

Ketlen Vieira (11-1) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (13-5) &
Sergey Spivak (11-2) vs. Jared Vanderaa (11-4)
Weight class: Women's Bantamweight & Heavyweight

Ketlen Vieira and Sergey Spivak are two of my more confident plays on this card. You can also swap out either for Drako Rodriguez if you aren't as confident in one of them.

Vieira is currently a -278 favorite and I understand the odds as she has a clear path to victory. First off, she should be able to outmuscle Kunitskaya and make this a boring fight by clinching the Russian against the cage and landing more strikes. Her grappling should also be a difference-maker. Kunitskaya is probably better on the feet but doesn't have that KO power that will stop the Brazilian from closing the distance.

Sergey Spivak, meanwhile, is a -250 favorite, and I believe he could be a bigger favorite. Although Vanderaa won on DWCS, he left a lot to be desired as his striking defense was not good, as he got hit a lot and has a very questionable gas tank. Spivak, meanwhile, has proven he can go three hard rounds, even while mixing in his wrestling, which I expect him to do here. Vanderaa has been submitted before and struggles on the ground, so I wouldn't be surprised if Spivak finished him on the ground.

The parlay comes out to -111 which is not a bad price to pay.

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The play: Vieira-Spivak parlay (-111)